Duke-OSU Preview

By Luka Papalko

College Basketball fans have already been spoiled with several good matchups early in the year with top teams facing each other but this is arguably the best matchup yet. Duke is traveling to Columbus, Ohio, after winning the Maui Invitational for the 5th time under Coach K. Duke has been on a roll of late, beating quality teams such as Michigan State, Michigan and Kansas. Meanwhile, Ohio State has been dominating teams after successfully passing an early season test versus Florida. The two teams will tip-off at 9:30 (ET) tonight and here’s what to watch for.

Starting Lineups

G – Seth Curry
G – Austin Rivers
G – Andre Dawkins
F – Ryan Kelly
C – Mason Plumlee
Key Bench Players: Tyler Thornton and Miles Plumlee

G – Aaron Craft
G – Lenzelle Smith Jr.
F – William Buford
F – Deshaun Thomas
C – Jared Sullinger
Key Bench Players: Jordan Siebert and Evan Ravenel

Keys For Duke

1 – Containing Jared Sullinger – The Ohio State offensive attack relies on Sullinger, whether he’s looking to score or looking to facilitate from the post. The offense runs through him and the Blue Devils need to do as much as they can to disrupt that. Mason Plumlee will have the main task of defending Sullinger with Miles Plumlee getting a shot as well. Miles is the more physical of the two and perhaps a better matchup for Sullinger but Mason is the better player and will be getting the bulk of the minutes. Mason has struggled with bigger, bulkier players thus far so it’ll be up to him to disrupt Sullinger as much as he can or else the Blue Devils will be in trouble.

2 – Rebounding – As of right now, Duke is 250th in the NCAA in rebounds per game (33.6) while Ohio State is 53rd (39.7). That’s a big difference and it can matter a lot in close games where second chance points count. The Plumlee brothers are Duke’s only good rebounders, as their guards are average and Ryan Kelly is too much of a perimeter big to make a difference. Going up against an Ohio State team who has good rebounders at every position, it’s going to be a key for Duke to stay with them on the boards.

3 – Team Defense - Ohio State is 5th in the NCAA in assists per game (20.3), which means Duke will have to have a team effort on defense to stop Ohio State. The Buckeyes, led by Craft, move the ball well on offense and are very good at making the extra pass. Even though the Plumlee’s will have to do a good job of guarding Sullinger on the block, there is a lot more to worry about because of Ohio State’s shooting and passing that will make Duke work on the defensive end.

Keys for Ohio State

1 – Bench Play – Thad Matta has been known to have a short bench but this year seems like the year that he can afford to have a bigger rotation. Sibert, Ravenel, Scott and whoever else is called upon will have to give Matta good minutes off the bench. Ohio State has the talent, it’s now about the players going out and gaining Matta’s trust and what better way than one of the biggest games of the year.

2 – Balanced Scoring – Duke does a good job of balancing their scoring out with all their starters averaging in double figures on the season. In comparison, Ohio State only has 3 of their starters averaging double figures. This will be one of those games where if the Buckeyes can get some major contributions outside of Sullinger and Buford, it will be a big difference in the game.

3 – Perimeter Defense - Unlike the Buckeyes, Duke doesn’t have someone who they can run their offense through on the low-block or look to, to get easy buckets down-low. Mason Plumlee does average in double digits but a lot of his offense is garbage points and he doesn’t have a refined low-post game. The majority of Duke’s scoring is from their guards and Ryan Kelly, who pulls opposing bigs out on defense. The key for Ohio State will be for their guards and wings to contain Duke’s perimeter scoring by staying in front and closing out on the shooters. If they can do that, they’ll be in very good shape.

Key Matchup

Jared Sullinger vs. Mason Plumlee

This matchup right here will likely determine the outcome of the game. Sullinger is such a big part of what the Buckeyes do, if Plumlee can’t contain or even disrupt Sullinger than it’s going to be a long night for Duke. Plumlee has the length, athleticism and the strength to stay with Sullinger but it’s going to depend on whether Plumlee is tough enough to battle Sullinger all night and the disciplined to play smart defense. This matchup won’t be as exciting or important when Sullinger is on defense since Plumlee isn’t much of a scorer but if Plumlee can draw a few fouls on Sullinger, than that could change the game and alleviate some of Duke’s problems guarding Sullinger.

In the end, this looks to be a terrific matchup of two top-5 teams who both look like realistic candidates to win a national championship. Both teams are very talented extremely well coached which should make this game even better. The Schottenstein Center will be rocking tonight as Ohio State will try to use their own home court advantage against a Duke team that knows all too well about home court advantages.

Luka Papalko’s Top 25

1. Kentucky
2. Ohio State
3. Duke
4. Syracuse
5. North Carolina
6. Baylor
7. Florida
8. Louisville
9. Alabama
10. Xavier
11. Missouri
12. Wisconsin
13. Michigan
14. Connecticut
15. Kansas
16. Pittsburgh
17. Marquette
18. Gonzaga
19. St. Louis
20. Vanderbilt
21. UNLV
22. Mississippi State
23. Harvard
24. Texas A&M
25. Memphis

PBD Top 25

1. Kentucky
2. Ohio State
3. Duke
4. Syracuse
5. North Carolina
6. Louisville
7. Baylor
8. Florida
9. Wisconsin
10. Connecticut
11. Xavier
12. Missouri
13. Alabama
14. Michigan
15. Kansas
16. Marquette
17. Pittsburgh
18. Mississippi State
19. Gonzaga
20. UNLV
21. Memphis
22. California
23. Vanderbilt
24. Texas A&M
25. St. Louis